【广发宏观陈嘉荔】应如何认识7月美国非农数据的大幅波动

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. employment data for July showed a significant decline, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, which was below the expected 104,000. Additionally, the data for the previous two months was notably revised downwards, with a total downward revision of 258,000 for May and June combined [1][6]. Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The July non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly lower than the expected 104,000. The revisions for May and June were substantial, with May revised down by 125,000 to 19,000 and June revised down by 133,000 to 14,000 [1][6]. - The volatility in non-farm data has become more frequent, attributed to technical issues in statistical methods and the increasingly complex economic environment. Factors include the limitations of the New Business Dynamics (NBD) model, outdated seasonal adjustment techniques, and significant fluctuations in U.S. economic policies [2][8]. - In July, the government sector cut 10,000 jobs, while the private sector added 83,000 jobs, which was below the expected 100,000. The healthcare, retail trade, and financial sectors contributed positively, while professional and business services, manufacturing, and government sectors were the main detractors [3][21]. Group 2: Unemployment Rate Insights - The unemployment rate (U3) increased from 4.12% to 4.25%. The rise in the unemployment rate for new entrants to the job market was a significant factor, moving from 0.42% to 0.58%. The permanent unemployment rate remained stable at 1.11% [4][22][23]. - The number of people transitioning from employment to unemployment rose significantly, while those moving from unemployment to employment decreased, indicating a weakening trend in the labor market [24][25]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Response - The Federal Reserve decided not to cut interest rates in July, with two members voting against the decision. The July non-farm data somewhat supported their viewpoint. Market expectations for a rate cut in September surged, with the probability rising to 80.3% from 37.7% [5][30][32]. - The market reacted negatively to the significant slowdown in non-farm data, raising concerns about the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy. This led to declines in major stock indices and a drop in bond yields [5][32].