Core Viewpoint - The sudden cooling of the U.S. labor market is prompting discussions about whether the Federal Reserve will repeat last summer's policy trajectory, where a weak employment report led to a significant interest rate cut shortly after a meeting where rates were held steady [1][3][7]. Group 1: Employment Data and Market Reactions - A surprisingly weak employment report has led to speculation about a repeat of last year's scenario, where the Fed maintained rates in July but cut them significantly in September following a disappointing jobs report [3][7]. - The July non-farm payroll data revealed a rapid cooling of the labor market, with numbers falling well below expectations and previous months' figures being significantly revised downwards, indicating potential economic weakness [3][4]. - Following the weak report, the probability of a rate cut in September surged from under 40% to nearly 90%, reflecting market expectations for a policy adjustment [4][6]. Group 2: Fed's Potential Actions - Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, stated that the employment report provides evidence for the Fed to adjust rates in September, raising questions about the magnitude of the cut [4][11]. - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in September is estimated at 89.6%, while the likelihood of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut is considered to be negligible according to current futures market pricing [6][11]. - The upcoming employment report and two months of inflation data before the September meeting will be crucial in determining whether the Fed will adopt a cautious approach or respond decisively to the changing economic outlook [12]. Group 3: Economic Context and Concerns - Notably, the current economic context differs from last year, as inflation is a concern due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which may complicate the Fed's decision-making process [10]. - Timiraos highlighted that the key issue for the Fed is whether the economic fundamentals are genuinely deteriorating or if the recent slowdown is merely a temporary effect of policy changes [10].
"7月不降息、9月大幅降息”?市场热议:美联储是否“去年再现”
美股IPO·2025-08-02 05:28