GPT-5进步有限，o3性能滑坡，OpenAI押注通用验证器

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of GPT-5 is anticipated to show improvements in programming capabilities and complex task automation, but these advancements are more about practical optimizations rather than a significant leap like the transition from GPT-3 to GPT-4 [1][14][17]. Group 1: Development Challenges - OpenAI has faced difficulties in developing GPT-5, which reflects broader challenges within the AI industry, leading to a slowdown in progress [10][14]. - The Orion project, initially intended to be GPT-5, failed to meet expectations due to a shortage of high-quality data [2][26]. - The o3 model, which generated excitement, performed poorly in its chat version, indicating a decline in performance when adapted for conversational use [3][33]. Group 2: Technical Innovations - The Universal Verifier, a tool being developed by OpenAI, is expected to enhance the quality of answers produced by models, benefiting both programming and creative writing tasks [7][40]. - GPT-5 is reported to be better at executing complex programming tasks with less human supervision, showcasing improvements in usability and aesthetics of applications [18][19]. Group 3: Organizational Dynamics - OpenAI is undergoing internal restructuring, facing pressure from both its research staff and financial relationships with Microsoft, which owns exclusive rights to OpenAI's intellectual property until 2030 [22][24]. - The departure of senior researchers to competitors like Meta has added to the internal pressure, affecting team morale and dynamics [24][26]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the challenges, OpenAI's leadership remains optimistic about achieving significant advancements, with expectations set high for GPT-5's capabilities [20][41]. - The company plans to invest $45 billion over the next three and a half years to support product development and operations, indicating confidence in future growth [19].