变革时代世界贸易组织的挑战及应对｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) is facing unprecedented transformation pressures due to profound changes in the global economic and trade landscape, necessitating effective strategies for stability and development in the international trade system [3]. Group 1: Current Global Economic Landscape - The international political and economic landscape is undergoing deep restructuring, characterized by sluggish global economic growth, persistent high inflation, and low interest rates, which are suppressing trade [5]. - Increased geopolitical instability and intensified strategic competition among major powers are significantly impacting global supply chain stability and trade trust [5]. - Trade protectionism is resurging, with the U.S. implementing policies such as "nearshoring," "friend-shoring," and "manufacturing repatriation," leading to heightened fragmentation risks in trade and accelerated restructuring of global industrial and value chains [5]. Group 2: Regional Trade Agreements and Governance - The global economic governance system is accelerating its differentiation, with regional trade agreements (RTAs) like RCEP and CPTPP emerging as alternatives to the WTO multilateral rule system, diverting member countries' attention and resources [5]. - As of June 2025, the number of global RTAs has surged from 99 in 2000 to 619, with 375 currently in effect [5]. - The emergence of exclusive trade rules within regional agreements undermines the WTO's non-discrimination principle, complicating global trade dynamics [5]. Group 3: Increasing Trade Disparities - The U.S., once a proponent of the multilateral trade system, has shifted towards "America First" and "reciprocal trade" policies, undermining the WTO's multilateral tariff negotiation mechanisms [6]. - The EU faces increased internal coordination challenges and diminished influence, while emerging economies and global South countries are demanding a voice commensurate with their economic contributions, complicating trade rule negotiations [6]. - Rapid technological advancements are outpacing the development of trade rules, particularly in digital trade, artificial intelligence, and cross-border data flows, leading to increased regulatory friction and market uncertainty [6]. Group 4: Challenges Facing the WTO - The WTO's negotiation and dispute resolution mechanisms are under severe strain, with the Doha Round negotiations stalled and significant disagreements among major members on core issues like market access [7]. - The WTO's dispute resolution mechanism has been effectively paralyzed since 2019 due to the U.S. blocking the appointment of new judges, leading to a reliance on temporary arbitration arrangements that have limited scope and effectiveness [7]. - Major members are increasingly ignoring multilateral rules on tariff issues, resulting in a decline in the binding nature of trade rules and a fragmented international trade system [7]. Group 5: Shifts in Negotiation Topics - Developing countries are increasingly vocal about their demands for fair trade, technology access, and development space, while traditional issues like agricultural subsidies have been marginalized in multilateral negotiations [8]. - Developed countries, led by the U.S., are prioritizing emerging topics such as digital economy, industrial subsidies, and climate issues, creating significant divides with developing nations [8]. - The focus on new negotiation topics has intensified, with capital, labor, data flows, and environmental protection gaining prominence in WTO discussions [9]. Group 6: Power Dynamics in Trade Rule-Making - Emerging economies, particularly China, are gaining strength and actively participating in global rule-making, seeking to establish rules that reflect their interests [9]. - Developed economies are attempting to reshape multilateral trade rules amid crises, using concepts like "democratic values" and "high-standard labor rights" to exclude non-market economies, which increases the risk of WTO fragmentation [10].