申万宏观·周度研究成果（7.26-8.1）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic trends and policies in China, focusing on fiscal spending, child-rearing subsidies, and the implications of the "involution" phenomenon in different sectors [6][12][21]. Group 1: Currency and Economic Policies - The article highlights the weak yen amidst political turmoil, analyzing the reasons behind its depreciation and potential future developments [9]. - It emphasizes the need for a balanced supply-demand relationship in industries to address the "involution" issue, suggesting that local governments play a crucial role in this process [12][21]. Group 2: Fiscal Spending and Child-Rearing Subsidies - Fiscal spending has accelerated significantly in the first half of the year, raising questions about whether this high growth rate can be sustained in the latter half [17]. - The introduction of child-rearing subsidies is expected to have systemic impacts on employment, education, and healthcare, with various regions implementing different subsidy policies [19][20]. Group 3: Industrial Performance and Economic Outlook - The industrial profit data for June indicates improvements in costs and revenues, supporting a recovery in profits, although the "involution" trend may limit further declines in profits [21]. - The July Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the importance of service consumption and enhancing industrial competitiveness, marking a shift towards "high-quality" investments [23]. Group 4: Market Trends and International Relations - The article notes that the PMI data for July reflects a paradox where anti-involution policies have led to price increases, yet supply-demand dynamics and industry changes appear counterintuitive [25]. - Recent agreements on tariffs between the US and Japan have resulted in positive market reactions in developed markets, indicating a potential for increased trade cooperation [28]. Group 5: Domestic Economic Activity - Despite a relatively weak industrial production environment, port cargo volumes remain strong, suggesting resilience in certain sectors [29]. - The article also tracks domestic policy developments, including the public consultation on the price law amendment, which reflects ongoing regulatory adjustments [31].