【广发宏观贺骁束】路径初明朗，坡度待观察：2025年中期通胀环境展望

Group 1 - The article discusses the four inflation decline cycles since 1993, with the current cycle (2022-2024) influenced by the real estate downturn, local government debt, and rapid supply growth in certain industries [1][10][45] - The current deflation index briefly touched bottom in Q1 2024 but remains weak, with Q2 2024 hitting a low of -1.2% [1][10][11] - The CRB index and the South China index show diverging trends, indicating that the current low inflation is primarily driven by domestic pricing of bulk commodities [1][13][54] Group 2 - The significant decline in domestic pricing of commodities in Q3 2024 is attributed to the pressure on construction demand due to debt issues, while the decline in Q2 2025 is linked to an oversupply of raw materials following a brief recovery in the real estate sector [2][16][17] - The economic "supply-demand ratio" simulated for Q3 2024 and Q2 2025 is 1.63 and 1.49, respectively, indicating mismatches in supply and demand in the construction and emerging industries [2][16][57] Group 3 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, four key macroeconomic features are highlighted: continued moderate slowdown in the US and Europe, geopolitical disturbances affecting commodities, accelerated domestic infrastructure projects, and the potential for improved supply-demand relationships due to "anti-involution" policies [2][19][61] - The article suggests that the pressure on price levels may have peaked, with the Q2 2024 deflation index likely being the lowest point of this cycle [2][19][61] Group 4 - Specific indicators for PPI include favorable base effects in the second half of the year, leading indicators suggesting continued recovery in industrial prices, and key commodity prices remaining at relatively low historical levels [3][23][24] - The internal drivers of PPI have changed, with new materials and technologies gaining significance in influencing price movements since 2021 [3][28][29] Group 5 - The article emphasizes the importance of housing prices, noting that the national second-hand housing prices have not yet stabilized, which could constrain inflation and consumer spending [6][34][35] - The risk premium in the real estate market has reached a historical high, suggesting a potential for price stabilization in the short term [6][34][36] Group 6 - The comprehensive assessment of price data for the second half of the year indicates a potential mild increase in PPI and CPI, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a return to positive inflation levels by Q4 2024 [7][38][39] - Structural opportunities in the price domain include the expansion of the black industrial chain driven by construction demand, the impact of "anti-involution" policies on manufacturing prices, and supply constraints in key commodities due to global supply chain shifts [7][42][41]