24潮·2025-08-03 23:18Core Viewpoint - Large-scale energy storage (大储) is expected to be a key solution in the global energy transition, driven by increasing electricity demand and the challenges of renewable energy integration [2][3]. Group 1: Global Energy Demand and Transition - The global electrification trend is accelerating, particularly in transportation, industry, and construction, leading to increased electricity demand, especially in emerging markets like China, India, and Southeast Asia [2]. - According to IEA, global electricity consumption growth is projected to reach 4% in both 2024 and 2025, the highest rate since 2007 [2]. - The installed capacity of renewable energy has rapidly increased, with global solar and wind capacity growing from 115.2 GW in 2015 to approximately 670 GW by 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate of over 19.0% [2]. Group 2: Energy Storage Market Potential - The large-scale energy storage market in Europe, the US, China, India, and Australia is expected to have significant growth potential over the next 3-5 years [3]. - In Europe, the installed capacity of large-scale energy storage is predicted to reach 11 GWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 205% [4][5]. - The US is projected to add 12.3 GW/37.1 GWh of new storage capacity in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 32.8% in power and 34% in capacity [8]. Group 3: Policy and Market Drivers - European countries are focusing on reducing energy dependence and increasing renewable energy generation, with renewable energy accounting for 47.4% of the EU's total electricity generation by 2024 [4]. - The US Inflation Reduction Act provides significant investment incentives for energy production, which is expected to stimulate rapid growth in the storage industry [19]. - India is implementing various policies, including subsidies and procurement obligations, to promote the development of the storage market [20]. Group 4: Domestic Market Trends - In China, the demand for large-scale energy storage is expected to grow rapidly, with cumulative installed capacity reaching 13.4 GW/32.1 GWh in early 2025, a year-on-year increase of 57% [9][14]. - The proportion of grid-side energy storage is projected to rise from 39% in 2022 to 57% by 2024 [14]. - By 2025, China's large-scale energy storage capacity could reach between 34.7 GW/89.4 GWh and 51.2 GW/141.6 GWh, depending on optimistic or pessimistic scenarios [17]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape and Technological Advancements - The competition among battery manufacturers is intensifying, with a shift towards larger capacity cells, such as the 314 Ah cells becoming mainstream [43]. - Major companies like CATL and BYD are launching new large-scale storage systems, with capacities exceeding 5 MWh [49][52]. - The development of energy storage systems is increasingly focused on enhancing safety, lifespan, and cost-effectiveness [43].