美国就业加速恶化了？——7月美国非农数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The July non-farm payroll data showed disappointing results, with job additions falling below expectations and significant downward revisions to previous months' data, raising concerns about the U.S. labor market and potential recession risks [2][9][21]. Group 1: July Non-Farm Payroll Overview - The July non-farm payroll added 73,000 jobs, below the expected 104,000, marking the lowest three-month average since October 2010, excluding the pandemic impact [2][21]. - The revisions for May and June were substantial, with May's job additions revised down from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs [2][21]. - Employment growth was concentrated in three sectors: education and health services (+79,000), retail (+15,700), and financial activities (+15,000), with education and health services contributing 108% of the new jobs [2][23]. Group 2: Unemployment Rate and Labor Participation - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, up from 4.1%, aligning with market expectations, while the labor participation rate decreased from 62.3% to 62.2% [25][26]. - The decline in labor participation contributed approximately 0.1 percentage points to the unemployment rate, suggesting that if labor supply had not decreased, the unemployment rate would be around 4.3% [25][26]. - The youth unemployment rate (ages 16-19) increased significantly, with a total decrease in the labor force population and an increase in unemployment among this demographic [25][26]. Group 3: Wage Growth and Working Hours - Hourly wage growth met expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, indicating stable wage growth [32]. - Average weekly hours worked rose from 34.2 to 34.3, which is beneficial for household income, with weekly earnings increasing by 0.6% [32]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Interest Rate Expectations - Following the non-farm report, market expectations for interest rate cuts surged, with the probability of a September rate cut rising from 47.4% to 87.2% [3][35]. - The market reacted negatively to the report, with significant declines in U.S. stock indices and a drop in long-term Treasury yields, indicating a shift towards recession pricing rather than a "bad news is good news" sentiment [3][35].