中金2025下半年展望 | 旅游酒店及餐饮：服务连锁正当其时，韧则行远

Core Viewpoint - The service chain sector is experiencing significant growth, with companies that possess strong internal capabilities and innovative business models outperforming in stock performance, despite a challenging consumption environment [2][5][39]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 1H25, the service sector saw a stable overall stock performance, with notable differentiation among sub-sectors. Companies in the ready-to-drink tea and restaurant segments that achieved same-store growth and robust expansion outperformed others [5][39]. - The leisure tourism demand has entered a normalized growth phase, but most tourism companies showed limited short-term performance increases, resulting in overall flat stock performance [5][39]. - The hotel industry continues to face cyclical pressures, with only a few companies like Atour showing strong stock performance due to rapid network expansion and retail growth [5][39]. - The duty-free sector is seeing a gradual recovery, with sales declines narrowing, but still not indicating a return to growth [5][39]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The focus remains on strong internal capabilities and high-growth niche leaders in the restaurant and beverage sectors, as they are expected to benefit from industry growth and market share gains [3][39]. - The service consumption sector is resilient and offers growth potential, supported by improved infrastructure and increasing consumer demand [17][20]. - The emergence of scalable chain brands indicates significant room for growth compared to mature markets, with only a fraction of Chinese service brands reaching valuations above $10 billion [18][20]. Group 3: Company Dynamics - Companies that excel in product, operational, brand, and organizational capabilities are more likely to succeed, especially in navigating the challenges of changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [22][28]. - Innovations in product offerings, store formats, and business models are crucial for driving growth, with examples including Luckin Coffee's online operations and the expansion strategies of various hotel brands [33][35]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with head-to-head comparisons of leading ready-to-drink tea and coffee brands revealing differences in pricing strategies and market positioning [36][37]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to present growth opportunities for comprehensive leaders and high-growth niche players, particularly as service consumption continues to evolve [2][39]. - The restaurant and hotel sectors are anticipated to experience varying degrees of recovery, with a focus on the performance of leading brands and their ability to adapt to market changes [44][46]. - The tourism sector is projected to see steady growth in travel volumes, although pricing pressures may persist [48][49].