中金：美股风险溢价为何能如此低？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the low equity risk premium in the US stock market, exploring the underlying factors that contribute to this phenomenon and its implications for future market performance [6][34]. Group 1: Macro Factors Influencing US Stock Market - The US stock market has been buoyed by three macro pillars: AI technology, fiscal expansion, and global capital rebalancing, which have created a positive feedback loop [2]. - Despite challenges in early 2023, including tech layoffs and fiscal tightening, the US stock market has quickly recovered and reached new highs [2][4]. - The performance of the US stock market and the dollar suggests a potential slight strengthening of the dollar, contrary to the prevailing narrative of "de-dollarization" [4]. Group 2: Understanding Equity Risk Premium - The equity risk premium (ERP) measures the additional return investors require for taking on the risk of investing in stocks compared to risk-free assets [7][8]. - Currently, the ERP for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq is significantly lower than that of other major global markets, with the S&P at 0.36% and Nasdaq at -0.6%, while European and Japanese markets show premiums of 4.0% and 3.6% respectively [8][10]. - The decline in the ERP began after the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes in 2022, which raised the 10-year Treasury yield from 2.1% to nearly 5.0% [10]. Group 3: Reevaluating Risk Premium Calculations - The article questions whether the traditional method of calculating ERP using nominal interest rates is appropriate, given the recent economic changes [12][13]. - It highlights that the divergence between nominal and real interest rates, particularly post-pandemic, may distort the perceived risk premium [15]. - The relative interest rate, which considers the difference between actual and natural rates, may provide a more accurate reflection of opportunity costs and valuation [17][21]. Group 4: Structural Differentiation in the US Stock Market - The low ERP is also attributed to significant structural differences within the market, driven primarily by AI trends and leading tech stocks [34]. - The "Magnificent Seven" stocks have surged 174% since late 2022, significantly outperforming the broader S&P 500, which rose 62% [34][36]. - The top 20 performing stocks have a current ERP of -0.8%, while the remaining 480 stocks have an ERP of 1.2%, indicating a stark contrast in risk premiums [36][41]. Group 5: Future Outlook for Risk Premium - The article suggests that the ERP may have room for slight decline, with potential S&P 500 levels projected between 6200 and 6400 based on current economic conditions [43][50]. - It also discusses the possibility of a market correction due to external factors, which could provide better buying opportunities [50].