国泰海通｜关税再起：幅度虽低，不可轻视——7月31日美国关税措施调整点评

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments to U.S. tariffs, highlighting that while the theoretical tariff rate has increased by 4%, the actual impact on the economy may exceed market expectations due to potential increases in enforcement and regulatory measures [1][5]. Summary by Sections Tariff Adjustments - As of August 7, 2025, the U.S. has implemented new tariffs, with the average tariff rate rising from 10% to a range of 10%-41% for 69 specific economies, averaging 17.7% [2]. - The overall average theoretical tariff rate has increased by approximately 4% compared to June, which is significantly lower than the 15% increase observed from April to May [4]. Trade Agreements - The U.S. has reached trade agreements with major partners, resulting in a reduction of tariff rates for certain countries compared to the previous exemption period [4]. - Notably, countries like Thailand, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka have seen a decrease in tariff rates, indicating potential trade agreements with the U.S. [4]. Enforcement and Regulatory Changes - There is a possibility of increased customs enforcement, which could enhance the economic impact of existing tariffs. The article notes that the actual execution of tariffs has been less stringent than theoretical rates, which may change with new regulations [6]. - The introduction of a unified 40% tariff on recognized transshipment activities suggests a tightening of trade regulations, particularly affecting U.S.-China trade dynamics [6]. Industry-Specific Tariffs - The ongoing implementation of Section 232 tariffs, particularly on steel, aluminum, and automotive products, could significantly impact the U.S. economy, as these products account for about 20% of total U.S. imports in 2024 [6].