国泰海通｜宏观：就业的“滞”和价格的“胀”：美联储的两难选择

Core Viewpoint - The July non-farm payroll data in the U.S. fell short of expectations, with significant downward revisions to the previous two months' data, while the unemployment rate only saw a slight increase. The impact of Trump's immigration policies on the labor market is becoming more pronounced, leading to a divergence between non-farm payroll growth and unemployment rates. Future observations will focus on the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, as concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve may resurface [1][2]. Non-Farm Data - The downward revision of non-farm payroll data exceeded market expectations, raising concerns about data quality. Historical comparisons indicate that the extent of this revision is unusual, suggesting a weakening in the private sector job market [2]. - Despite the significant drop in non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate only experienced a minor increase. This divergence is attributed to the effects of immigration policies, which have led to a noticeable decline in the proportion of foreign-born individuals in the workforce and a decrease in the share of people holding multiple jobs [2]. Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma regarding monetary policy, balancing between employment conditions and inflation risks influenced by immigration and tariff policies. The July non-farm data is unlikely to alter Powell's hawkish stance, with the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting being a critical point for observing policy statements [2].