【广发宏观王丹】7月中观面分化

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in July decreased by 0.4 points to 49.3, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, while the overall economic sentiment showed slight improvement with an increase in the number of expanding industries from 6 to 7, suggesting that economic conditions are influenced by both quantity and price factors [1][5][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In July, industries showing improvement were primarily in two categories: midstream equipment manufacturing and certain raw material sectors, including general and specialized equipment, electrical machinery, and metal products, likely linked to the release of the 2025 "Two Heavy" construction projects and central budget investments [7][10]. - The producer price index for black metals, non-ferrous metals, and non-metallic minerals increased by 80.1, 13.4, and 12.7 points respectively in July, reflecting a positive price trend in these sectors [7][8]. - The number of industries in the expansion zone increased to 7, with notable improvements in specialized equipment (up 1.6 points), general equipment (up 14.8 points), and electrical machinery (up 1.9 points) [7][10]. Group 2: Declining Industries - The industries experiencing significant downturns included durable consumer goods related to "trade-in" programs, export-dependent sectors, and the petrochemical industry, with automotive and computer communication electronics seeing declines of 7.0 and 3.7 points respectively [10][11]. - Export orders for automotive, textiles, and chemical industries showed notable declines, with the automotive sector's export orders dropping by 10.6 points [11][10]. - The petrochemical sector's sentiment decreased by 9.8 points in July, correlating with a drop in international crude oil prices after a peak in mid-June [10][11]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - The new materials industry has maintained a leading sentiment for three consecutive months, with a 0.4 point increase in July, remaining above the 50 mark, indicating robust growth driven by connections to upstream sectors like new energy and robotics [17][18]. - High-end equipment manufacturing and energy-saving industries showed resilience, remaining above seasonal averages, while the biotechnology and new energy vehicle sectors experienced declines [17][18]. - The sentiment in the new materials sector is supported by rapid internal growth and large-scale equipment updates, while the new energy vehicle sector faces production constraints due to industry "anti-involution" policies [17][18]. Group 4: Construction and Service Industries - In July, the construction sector saw a decline in outdoor construction activities due to adverse weather conditions, with residential construction sentiment dropping by 4.7 points, which is greater than the seasonal average decline [18][20]. - The service sector's operating conditions slightly decreased by 0.1 points in July, with high sentiment in travel-related industries such as aviation and dining, which saw significant increases [23][24]. - The overall service sector sentiment remains relatively high, with cultural and sports entertainment sectors exceeding 60 points, indicating a vibrant market [23][24].