非农大幅下修，原油回落：申万期货早间评论-20250804

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent economic data and policy decisions on various sectors, particularly focusing on the U.S. non-farm payrolls, oil prices, and the performance of the Chinese stock market. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls data showed a significant miss, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, far below the expected 110,000, marking the lowest increase in nine months [11][18] - The previous two months' data were revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs, indicating a weakening labor market [11][18] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for July unexpectedly dropped to 48%, the lowest in nine months, reflecting a contraction in the manufacturing sector [11] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices fell by 2.86% in the overnight session, with OPEC and its allies approving an increase in production by 548,000 barrels per day for September [12][19] - The U.S. President threatened to penalize China and India for purchasing oil from a European country, which could risk 2.75 million barrels per day of maritime oil exports from that country [12][19] - China and India, the second and third largest oil consumers globally, have not indicated plans to reduce imports, although India has completed its procurement of Russian oil for September [12][19] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The Chinese stock market experienced a decline following the disappointing U.S. non-farm payrolls data, with significant drops in the oil, petrochemical, and defense sectors [9][10] - The market capitalization reached 1.62 trillion yuan, with a slight increase in financing balance by 432 million yuan to 19,710.27 billion yuan [9][10] - The article suggests that while the current policy signals are clear and valuations are beginning to recover, the fundamental economic conditions have yet to be validated [9][10] Group 4: Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission of China plans to accelerate the approval of new policy financial tools, which may boost infrastructure investment in the second half of the year [6] - Hospitals in several provinces are tightening regulations on pharmaceutical representatives, aiming to curb unethical practices in the medical field [7]