国泰海通 · 晨报0805｜固收、医药、通信

Group 1: Government Bond Tax Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax, reversing the previous tax exemption [2][3] - The market is particularly concerned about whether this change will lead to cross-period arbitrage opportunities or short squeeze phenomena in government bond futures, which hinges on whether there will be a switch in the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) bonds [2][4] Group 2: CTD Bond Switching Dynamics - Generally, new bonds find it difficult to replace old bonds as CTD bonds unless they offer a yield premium of over 15 basis points, which is challenging to achieve in practice [3] - However, exceptions exist for T contracts and TS contracts, where new bonds can more easily become CTD bonds due to their shorter duration and lower required discount [3][4] Group 3: Cross-Period Arbitrage Opportunities - The potential for cross-period arbitrage in government bond futures depends on whether the CTD bonds for near and far month contracts switch, which could lead to price discrepancies [4] - The upcoming issuance of new 2-year and 7-year bonds on September 12 may trigger CTD bond switches, creating arbitrage opportunities between TS2512-TS2603 and T2512-T2603 [4] Group 4: Short Squeeze Potential - There is a possibility of a short squeeze in government bond futures if new bonds become CTD bonds, especially given the limited supply of new bonds initially [5] - The market's lack of experience with new bonds as CTD bonds could exacerbate the short squeeze pressure, particularly for contracts like T and TS2603, which are associated with new 7-year and 2-year bonds [5] Group 5: Domestic Weight Loss Drug Innovations - Domestic pharmaceutical companies are making significant progress in the development of innovative weight loss drugs, with several companies completing key clinical trials and receiving regulatory approvals [9][10] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the commercialization of competitive domestic weight loss drugs, with notable advancements in clinical data and market readiness [10][11] Group 6: Fund Holdings in Communication Sector - The fund holdings in the communication sector have shown a positive trend, with a 1.31 percentage point increase in the market value share, indicating a recovery in investor confidence [15] - The AI computing power supply chain remains a focal point for investment, with significant capital expenditures expected from major domestic internet companies [14][15]