土地溢价率继续回升——每周经济观察第31期

Economic Outlook - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has slightly increased to 6.35% as of July 27, up from 5.84% on July 20, indicating a recovery in infrastructure and durable goods consumption [2][8] - The land premium rate has risen for three consecutive weeks, reaching 9% as of July 27, with a four-week average of 6.9%, compared to 5.47% in June [2][12] Consumption Trends - Service consumption has shown a decline, with subway ridership remaining stable at an average of 81.53 million daily in 27 cities, and domestic flight numbers increasing by only 0.8% year-on-year [3][12] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have decreased, with a year-on-year growth of 5% as of July 27, down from 17% previously [3][12] - The sales of commercial residential properties have seen a significant drop, with a 22% year-on-year decrease in July compared to 17.6% in June [3][12] Production Insights - Infrastructure activity is performing better than last year, with asphalt plant operating rates at 33% as of July 30, up 6.7% year-on-year [3][16] - Coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port has shown a year-on-year growth of 11.8% in July, down from 24.4% in June [3][19] Trade Developments - Port container throughput has experienced a seasonal decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 6.5% as of July 27, while the four-week cumulative year-on-year growth is 5.6% [3][21] - The U.S. import figures have shown a significant drop, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.5% in July [3][22] Price Movements - A decline in commodity prices has been observed, with the South China index down 2.5% and the RJ/CRB commodity price index down 2.3% [3][37] - Prices for upstream solar and lithium carbonate have significantly decreased, with polysilicon futures down 3.1% and lithium carbonate futures down 13.7% [3][38] Debt and Interest Rates - The issuance of special bonds has exceeded the pace of the previous year, with a total of 2.82 trillion yuan issued, representing 64% of the annual target [4][43] - Interest rates have decreased, with the one-year, five-year, and ten-year government bond yields reported at 1.3734%, 1.5686%, and 1.7059%, respectively [4][51]