结婚人数，怎么突然反弹了？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rebound in marriage registrations in China, highlighting the cultural and policy factors contributing to this trend, and its potential implications for birth rates and societal structure [4][6][20]. Group 1: Marriage Registration Trends - In the first half of 2025, marriage registrations reached 3.539 million pairs, an increase of 109,000 pairs compared to the previous year, while divorces rose to 1.331 million pairs, up by 57,000 pairs [4][5]. - The marriage registration numbers in 2024 were the lowest since 1980, with only 6.106 million pairs registered [5]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a surprising increase in marriage registrations, with a rise of 26.9 thousand pairs, countering the decline observed in the first quarter [8][9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Marriage Rates - Cultural factors, such as the "double spring year," have influenced marriage decisions, but policy changes are seen as more significant [11][12]. - The removal of barriers to marriage registration, including the cancellation of fees and the ability to register anywhere in the country, has facilitated the increase in marriage numbers [14][15]. - The timing of policy implementation coincided with peak wedding dates, enhancing its immediate impact [16]. Group 3: Implications for Birth Rates - Marriage is viewed as a precursor to childbirth, and the increase in marriage registrations is expected to positively influence birth rates in the following years [19][20]. - However, the article notes that while policy changes have eased marriage registration, further efforts are needed to sustain and reverse declining marriage and birth rates [20][30]. Group 4: Divorce Trends - The number of divorces also increased in the first half of 2025, with a growth rate of 4.5%, surpassing the marriage growth rate of 3.2% [21][22]. - The divorce rate has been affected by the implementation of a 30-day cooling-off period, which has led to fluctuations in divorce statistics over the past few years [24][25]. - The changing societal attitudes towards marriage and divorce, along with economic factors, are contributing to the rising divorce rates [28][29]. Group 5: Government Initiatives - The Chinese government is prioritizing marriage and childbirth as national objectives, implementing various supportive policies, including financial subsidies for families [30][32]. - Recent initiatives include annual subsidies for children up to three years old and extended parental leave policies across various provinces [34][36]. - The article emphasizes that reversing the trends in marriage and childbirth will require sustained efforts and a comprehensive approach rather than quick fixes [37].