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【有色】7月线缆企业开工率创近6年同期新低——铜行业周报（20250728-20250801）（王招华/方驭涛）
光大证券研究·2025-08-04 23:03

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing short-term fluctuations, with expectations of a potential rebound in Q4 due to increased demand from the power grid and air conditioning sectors as trade conflicts ease [3]. Macroeconomic Factors - As of August 1, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 78,400 CNY/ton, down 1.07% from July 25, while LME copper closed at 9,633 USD/ton, down 1.66% [3]. - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July fell short of expectations, increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which has weakened the dollar [3]. Supply and Demand - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives starting August 1, excluding electrolytic copper, leading to short-term inventory pressure on LME [3]. - Domestic cable operating rates are lower than the same period last year, and air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year from August to October [3]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 4.5% and LME copper inventory rose by 11.2% [4]. - As of August 1, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 522,000 tons, down 7.0% from the previous week [4]. Raw Material Prices - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 35 CNY/ton this week [5]. - In May 2025, China's refined copper output was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [5]. Smelting Production - In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.5% month-on-month and 14.2% year-on-year [6][7]. Demand Trends - Cable operating rates decreased by 3.5 percentage points, with cable production accounting for 31% of domestic copper demand [8]. - Air conditioning production is projected to decline by 12% year-on-year from August to October [8]. Futures Market - As of August 1, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 5% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions fell by 6% [9].