国内高频 | 港口货运量出现较大幅度回落（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production shows signs of seasonal weakness, but infrastructure construction is experiencing a slight recovery. The blast furnace operating rate and apparent consumption have both increased year-on-year, with a rise of +1.1 and +0.5 percentage points to 2.2% and -0.3% respectively [2][6] - The social inventory of steel has seen a rebound [2] - In the textile sector, operating rates are higher than the same period last year, while the polyester filament and automotive sectors have seen a decline in operating rates [14][20] Group 2: Cement and Construction Industry - Cement production and demand are recovering, with grinding operating rates increasing significantly by +6.0 percentage points to -0.2% year-on-year. Cement shipment rates have also improved by +0.8 percentage points to -2.2% [25][29] - The cement inventory ratio has slightly decreased by -0.5 percentage points to -0.2% [32] Group 3: Glass and Asphalt Production - Glass consumption has decreased, with production slightly rebounding but still down by -7.7% year-on-year. Apparent consumption has also fallen by -5.0 percentage points to 8.7% [37][41] - Asphalt operating rates have increased year-on-year, up by +2.5 percentage points to 8.0% [37] Group 4: Real Estate and Demand Trends - The transaction volume of commercial housing has declined, with a year-on-year decrease of -13.6 percentage points to -19.6% in 30 major cities. The largest drop is observed in third-tier cities, with a decline of -44.0 percentage points to -31.5% [49][50] - National railway and highway freight volumes have also decreased, with year-on-year declines of -0.5 percentage points to 6.5% and -0.8 percentage points to 2.8% respectively [60][64] Group 5: Export and Shipping Trends - The shipping prices continue to decline, with the CCFI composite index dropping by -2.3% week-on-week. The Southeast Asia route has seen a significant price drop of -3.9% [89][90] - The BDI average price has also decreased by -3.1% [89] Group 6: Price Trends in Agriculture and Industry - Agricultural product prices are showing divergence, with pork and fruit prices falling by -0.3% and -0.2% respectively, while vegetable and egg prices have increased by +0.6% and +3.6% [101][105] - The industrial product prices have generally declined, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index dropping by -1.4% [113][114]