月度前瞻 | 7月经济：涨价的“悖论”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1: Inflation and Policy - The core focus of July's policy is on "anti-involution," with multiple departments addressing the phenomenon of market "involution" [2][11] - The expected PPI and CPI for July are projected to be -3.1% and 0% respectively, indicating weak price performance despite rising expectations of inflation due to supply constraints [2][11] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to regulate low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [2][11] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Supply has not significantly contracted, with industrial production showing resilience and exports recovering, leading to an expected industrial value-added growth of around 6.4% in July [4][5] - The PMI production index remains above the expansion threshold, indicating that supply has not experienced substantial contraction [4][5] - The production indices for sectors with strong price increases, such as metallurgy, have shown significant growth, while sectors like petrochemicals and consumer manufacturing have faced declines [4][5][55] Group 3: Demand Structure - Demand is showing structural differentiation, with weak goods demand but stronger service demand, leading to an expected slight decline in actual GDP growth to 4.9% in July [6][73] - Exports are expected to rise to around 6.8% in July, driven by a low base effect and the residual impact of "export grabbing" [6][73] - The consumer market is experiencing a potential decline in goods consumption due to a "window period" for subsidies, while service consumption is expected to improve due to increased travel and dining activities [8][89] Group 4: Investment Trends - Investment performance is mixed, with real estate and manufacturing investments likely to decline, while infrastructure and service sector investments may improve [8][102] - The acceleration of special bond issuance is expected to support infrastructure investment, with asphalt construction rates showing an increase [8][102] - Manufacturing investment faces downward pressure as equipment renewal demand approaches its peak, while real estate investment is likely to continue weakening [8][102] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The main logic of economic operation in July revolves around "price increases," but supply-side production is increasing while demand remains weak, suggesting limited sustainability of price increases [9][112] - The expected nominal GDP growth for July is projected at 3.9%, with actual GDP growth at 4.9% [9][112]