关于恢复征收国债增值税、反内卷和供给侧改革

Core Viewpoint - The announcement to reinstate VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds and financial bonds starting August 8, 2025, raises questions about its net impact on government revenue and expenditure, suggesting that the effects are not neutral as many investors believe [4][9]. Group 1: Economic Implications - The policy is expected to increase both government revenue from VAT and interest expenditure on new bonds, indicating a simultaneous rise in both aspects [4][9]. - Viewing the situation from a cyclical perspective, the policy could enhance internal circulation, benefiting both government and the real economy through increased tax revenue and interest income [9][18]. Group 2: Theoretical Framework - The concepts of monetary neutrality and Ricardian equivalence are introduced to analyze the effectiveness of fiscal policies, suggesting that in reality, these policies do have significant impacts despite theoretical assumptions [10][17]. - The discussion emphasizes that market participants often lack the rationality required to fully understand the long-term implications of such policies, leading to misinterpretations of their neutrality [18][19]. Group 3: Internal Circulation and Inflation - The relationship between nominal wages and inflation is explored, indicating that increases in nominal wages can enhance internal circulation by raising both wage expenses for businesses and income for households [20][23]. - The article argues that the long-term low CPI in the domestic market is a result of systemic issues across various economic factors, including tax policies [26][30]. Group 4: Policy Signals - The reinstatement of VAT on government bonds signals a potential increase in the likelihood of canceling other tax exemptions and subsidies, particularly on government bond income tax [28][40]. - The discussion highlights the need for a systemic approach to understanding the factors contributing to internal economic challenges, rather than focusing on isolated elements [30][49].