金属周报 | 美铜挤出溢价，非农爆冷推动降息预期回升，黄金守住关口

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected conclusion of the U.S. government's 232 investigation into copper and the removal of tariffs on imported refined copper led to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices, eliminating the premium previously expected from tariffs. This was compounded by disappointing non-farm employment data, which reignited interest in potential interest rate cuts, providing some support for both gold and copper prices [1][3][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market Review - Last week, gold prices initially fell but later rebounded, with COMEX gold rising by 0.61% while silver dropped by 3.18%. SHFE gold and silver contracts also saw declines of 0.85% and 5.05%, respectively [2]. - The rebound in gold prices was supported by a significant drop in non-farm employment data, which was much lower than market expectations, leading to a notable increase in rate cut expectations. This, along with the resignation of a Federal Reserve governor, raised questions about the Fed's independence, causing the dollar and interest rates to decline sharply [4][21]. - The gold market is expected to have further upward potential due to ongoing concerns about U.S. monetary credit risks and potential recession risks [52]. Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - The U.S. government's announcement to end the 232 investigation and remove tariffs on imported refined copper caused a sharp decline in COMEX copper prices, which had previously been inflated by tariff expectations. The price gap between U.S. copper and other regions quickly narrowed [3][5]. - Following the FOMC meeting, where Fed Chair Powell maintained a hawkish stance, and strong economic data, the market adjusted its expectations for a September rate cut, putting additional pressure on copper prices. However, a significant accident at a Chilean copper mine and disappointing non-farm employment data provided some rebound momentum for copper prices [3][5]. - The domestic copper market is currently experiencing a consumption lull, with prices testing support levels around 78,000 yuan/ton. The expectation is that the removal of U.S. copper tariffs will lead to changes in global refined copper logistics, potentially increasing supply pressure in China [5][51].