【招银研究】美国降息预期摇摆，市场情绪边际降温——宏观与策略周度前瞻（2025.08.04-08.08）

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a rational perspective on the recent non-farm payroll data, highlighting that the employment growth in the U.S. is showing signs of stagnation but should not be extrapolated linearly as a trend of cooling employment [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The non-farm payroll data for May and June was significantly revised downwards, with May adjusted from 125,000 to 19,000 and June from 133,000 to 14,000, leading to a three-month moving average of only 35,000 [2]. - The unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, and wage growth is stable at 3.9%, indicating a balanced labor market despite a decrease in immigration [2]. - High-frequency indicators suggest a strengthening job market, with initial jobless claims dropping to 218,000, significantly below seasonal levels [2]. Economic Recovery Drivers - The economic recovery is supported by a return to fiscal expansion and a peak decline in long-term interest rates. The cumulative deficit over the past four weeks reached $219.8 billion, contrasting with a surplus of $56.2 billion in the previous four weeks [3]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 4.2% from its May peak, indicating a recovery in interest-sensitive sectors [3]. Market Reactions - The market experienced volatility, with a shift from hawkish to dovish sentiment following the disappointing non-farm payroll data, leading to a rapid increase in rate cut expectations [4]. - U.S. stock markets showed a downward trend, primarily due to the Fed's hawkish stance, although strong earnings reports from companies like Meta and Microsoft provided some support [4]. Currency and Commodity Outlook - The dollar is expected to remain low, with the market returning to a logic dominated by interest rate differentials. The anticipated Fed rate cuts could pressure the dollar further [6]. - Gold prices are supported by multiple favorable factors, including potential rate cuts and increased investor buying signals, despite being considered expensive [7]. China Economic Insights - China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory at 50.1 [9]. - Export growth is under pressure, with the new export orders index at 47.1, reflecting ongoing challenges from high tariffs imposed by the U.S. [10]. - Domestic demand remains mixed, with strong growth in automotive retail but a significant decline in real estate transactions [10]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - In July, the government issued 1.25 trillion yuan in net financing, with a shift towards accelerating the issuance of special bonds [11]. - The central bank's focus is shifting towards optimizing policy implementation and enhancing the effectiveness of monetary transmission [11]. Policy Developments - The introduction of a child-rearing subsidy program is expected to impact consumer spending positively, while the "anti-involution" policy aims to regulate competition among enterprises [12]. - The announcement of a tax on bond interest income starting in 2025 is intended to balance fiscal pressures and reform tax administration [13]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests maintaining a balanced allocation in domestic bonds, with a focus on short to medium-term maturities, while also considering the potential for equity investments in sectors like consumer goods and technology [17]. - The outlook for A-shares remains cautiously optimistic, with a recommendation for balanced exposure to growth and value stocks, particularly in dividend-paying sectors [17].