4300亿美元“灰飞烟灭”！全球“药王”，跌下神坛

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk's new drug, semaglutide, initially achieved significant sales success but has recently faced a slowdown, leading to a downward revision of its annual performance guidance [4][5][7]. Sales Performance - In Q1, semaglutide's sales growth expectations were revised down from 13%-21% to 8%-14%, and operating profit growth expectations were adjusted from 16%-24% to 10%-16% [5]. - Following the announcement, Novo Nordisk's stock price dropped over 21% in one day, continuing a downward trend with a total decline exceeding 30% over four trading days, resulting in a market value loss of over $92 billion [7]. Market Challenges - The company cited lower-than-expected market penetration for Wegovy in cash payment channels, attributing this to the ongoing presence of unsafe and illegal generic drug production [7]. - Novo Nordisk's other major product, Ozempic, is also facing competitive pressure in the U.S. market, contributing to the downward revision of growth expectations [7][20]. Competitive Landscape - The emergence of Eli Lilly's tirzepatide poses a significant challenge to Novo Nordisk, especially after positive results from the SURPASS-CVOT trial, which demonstrated cardiovascular benefits and other improvements [18][20]. - The trial involved over 13,000 patients and is the largest and longest follow-up study for tirzepatide to date [18]. Financial Outlook - Following the performance guidance revision, HSBC downgraded Novo Nordisk's rating, citing illegal sales practices and internal management changes as factors affecting market confidence [20][21]. - The company’s revenue growth rate is expected to stabilize at mid-single digits by 2025, a significant reduction from previous optimistic forecasts [21]. Market Potential - Despite the challenges faced by Novo Nordisk, the global weight loss market remains vast, with approximately 1 billion people suffering from obesity but only a few million receiving treatment [21]. - The stock's significant decline of over 65% in the past year may have already priced in the pessimism regarding performance slowdown, suggesting potential undervaluation [21].