市场评估美联储降息概率，外盘股价收涨：申万期货早间评论-20250805

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the market's assessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability, highlighting the recent performance of external stock prices and key economic indicators from China [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve's Daly indicated that the timing for an interest rate cut is approaching due to signs of a weakening job market and a lack of persistent tariff inflation [1]. - China's service import and export total reached 38,872.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 8%. Exports were 16,883 billion yuan, up 15%, while imports were 21,989.6 billion yuan, up 3.2%. The service trade deficit decreased by 1,522.1 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stocks rose, with defense and machinery sectors leading the gains, while retail and oil sectors lagged. The market turnover was 15.2 trillion yuan [2][9]. - The financing balance decreased by 4.753 billion yuan to 1.966274 trillion yuan as of August 1 [2][9]. - The "anti-involution" policy has been driving stock index increases since July, with current policy signals clear, but the fundamentals have yet to be validated [2][10]. Group 3: Commodity Insights - Rubber prices stabilized after a decline, supported by supply-side factors, while demand remains weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][17]. - Glass futures continue to show weakness, with inventory levels decreasing as summer maintenance deepens, indicating a focus on supply-side contraction [3][16]. - The pure soda market is also experiencing a trial stop in price declines, with inventory levels decreasing, suggesting a process of stock digestion [3][16]. Group 4: Industry News - In July, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.18 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, but a month-on-month decrease of 4% [7].