Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a correction phase, returning to a volatile state, with the main structural breakthrough yet to be established. The market will digest the expected economic growth slowdown in the second half of 2025 and the policy focus on structural adjustments [4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The focus on self-sufficiency and defense industry presents a potential opportunity, with a "barbell strategy" (high dividend + micro-cap stocks) likely to see a rebound [4]. - The main catalyst for future upward movement is the trend against "involution," which is expected to improve the profitability of midstream manufacturing in the long term, although short-term momentum may face resistance [4]. Group 2: Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical and computer sectors (IT services, software development) are highlighted as key areas of interest [5]. - In the short term, consumer goods are expected to have a rebound potential, following the recent activity in Hong Kong's cyclical stocks, indicating a time window for revaluation of consumer goods [8]. - In the medium term, the probability of a reversal in the consumer goods sector is increasing, with the rise in consumer goods prices expected to solidify the current valuation of new consumption sectors [9]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The recent meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China focused on the development of the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need for a stable and active capital market [11]. - The policy mentions the attractiveness and inclusivity of the Chinese capital market, reflecting ongoing attention to its healthy development [12]. - Non-manufacturing PMI remains above the threshold but shows signs of marginal slowdown, with input prices performing better than sales prices [15].
【申万宏源策略】周度研究成果(7.25-8.3)
申万宏源研究·2025-08-05 01:16