【申万宏源策略】非农引发美股“衰退交易”，美联储降息分歧加大——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250725-20250801)

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent U.S. non-farm payroll data and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, highlighting increasing divisions within the Fed regarding potential rate cuts and the resulting impact on global markets [2][3][7]. Economic Indicators - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking a period of inaction since Trump's presidency [3][6]. - The U.S. added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [3][6][7]. - Revisions to previous months' non-farm payroll data showed a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs, indicating a weakening labor market [3][6]. Market Reactions - The weak employment data triggered a "recession trade" in global equity markets, leading to declines in most equity assets and significant drops in metal commodities [3][6][7]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 17 basis points to 4.23%, while the U.S. dollar index saw a slight increase, remaining below 100 [3][6][7]. Fund Flows - There was a notable outflow of capital from the Chinese stock market, with domestic investors withdrawing $3.085 billion, while foreign investors saw an inflow of $882 million [3][6]. - In the past week, global funds saw significant inflows into U.S. and European markets, while Chinese equity funds experienced substantial outflows [3][9]. Valuation Metrics - The Earnings Risk Premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index rose to 64%, indicating a slight recovery in valuation attractiveness compared to historical levels [3][6]. - The risk-adjusted returns for the CSI 300 increased from 71% to 79%, while the S&P 500's risk-adjusted returns remained stable at 48% [3][6]. Sector Performance - In the U.S. equity market, funds flowed into financials, industrials, and infrastructure sectors, while healthcare, energy, and technology sectors saw outflows [11]. - In the Chinese market, capital flowed into financials, technology, and materials sectors, with outflows from real estate, infrastructure, and healthcare sectors [11].