【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】牛市中的调整波段

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a short-term adjustment due to the full execution of a rotation and supplementary rally, leading to a slight decline in market stability. The political bureau meeting in July and the new round of China-US negotiations did not provide new breakthrough clues, resulting in a return to a volatile market. The focus is on structural adjustments and the expectation of economic growth slowing down in the second half of 2025 [2][3][4]. Market Adjustment Background - The adjustment is characterized by a shift from a previous breakout to a high-cut-low market, driven by policies against involution and the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project. However, the essence remains a process of rotation and supplementary rally, with the market needing to refocus on main lines, which has led to the current adjustment [2][3][4]. Economic Growth Expectations - The original market expectation is for economic growth to slow in the third quarter, with policy focus shifting towards structural adjustments. This adjustment is not expected to be of a large scale, as the supply-demand pattern is likely to improve in 2026 compared to 2025. The reinforcement of anti-involution policies enhances the visibility and sustainability of this expectation [4][5]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to return to a volatile state in August, with potential upward movements before the September 3 military parade. The core idea is that time is a friend of the bull market, with improvements in fundamentals and incremental capital inflows into A-shares being crucial. The window for institutional investors to accumulate profit effects may arrive earlier than expected in the first half of 2026 [4][5][6]. Sector Performance - High-growth sectors such as pharmaceuticals and overseas computing are leading the market, with expectations of short-term excess returns. The anti-involution policy is seen as a major catalyst for future upward movements, particularly in the midstream manufacturing sector, which is expected to improve profitability over the long term [5][7]. Investment Strategy - The strategy suggests focusing on sectors with high dividends and micro-cap stocks, which may see a rebound. The potential bull market is likely to be driven by technology sectors, particularly AI and robotics, as well as advanced manufacturing boosted by anti-involution policies [5][6][7].