野村首席观点 | 苏博文：特朗普很难影响美联储的政策，美联储有很多保障措施和强大的制度基础

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing tension between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, highlighting Trump's pressure for interest rate cuts and the potential appointment of a "shadow chairman" to influence Fed policy [6][7]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Inflation - Trump has suggested that the federal funds rate should be lowered by 300 basis points, citing low inflation as a reason for the Fed to cut rates [6]. - If inflation rises in the next three months, it may complicate Trump's ability to pressure Powell, as he could appoint a shadow chairman to argue that any inflation increase is temporary [6]. - The short-term motivations of the U.S. government could lead to inflationary pressures, which may conflict with the Fed's long-term goals of economic stability [6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Despite Trump's negative stance towards the Fed, it is difficult for him to significantly influence its policies due to the strong institutional framework and safeguards in place [7]. - Any new chairman appointed by Trump would still require Senate approval, and monetary policy decisions involve a committee of 19 members, making unilateral influence challenging [7]. - There is a risk that a new chairman aligned with Trump's views could undermine the Fed's independence, which could have detrimental effects on the U.S. economy and market confidence [7].