华尔街见闻·2025-08-05 10:21Core Viewpoint - Analysts from major Wall Street firms are warning clients to prepare for a potential pullback in the U.S. stock market due to high valuations clashing with weakening economic data [1][4]. Group 1: Market Predictions - Morgan Stanley's strategist Mike Wilson predicts a potential adjustment of up to 10% in the S&P 500 index this quarter, citing tariffs impacting consumer and corporate finances [4]. - Evercore's Julian Emanuel forecasts a possible decline of up to 15% [4]. - Deutsche Bank's analyst team, led by Parag Thatte, notes that the market has risen for three consecutive months, indicating that a pullback is overdue [4]. Group 2: Economic Concerns - Recent data shows rising inflation in the U.S., alongside slowing job growth and consumer spending, raising concerns about the economic outlook [6]. - Historically, the S&P 500 index has performed poorly in August and September, averaging a decline of 0.7% during these months over the past 30 years, while other months average a gain of 1.1% [6]. - The S&P 500's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently surpassed 76, indicating overbought conditions, which is above the 70 threshold considered "overheated" by technical analysts [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategy - Despite the short-term bearish sentiment, analysts maintain a "buy on the dip" stance, emphasizing the long-term bullish trend of the market [7]. - Evercore's Emanuel advises clients to hold positions, particularly in companies benefiting from the AI boom [7]. - Deutsche Bank's Thatte highlights that historically, the S&P 500 experiences a small pullback of about 3% every 1.5 to 2 months and a larger pullback of over 5% every 3 to 4 months [7]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following these warnings, traders appear to be accepting the advice to buy on dips, as evidenced by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices both rising over 1% after a previous decline [8].