中金 | AI寻机系列：AI PCB迎创新扩产周期，设备及耗材卖铲人受益

Core Viewpoint - The PCB industry is entering a capital expenditure expansion cycle driven by global AI server demand, with a focus on investment opportunities in PCB equipment and consumables, particularly innovative equipment increments [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The demand for PCBs is primarily driven by innovation in downstream electronic products, which are closely tied to macroeconomic conditions [6]. - The previous cycle (2017-2023) was driven by 5G communication and new energy, with global PCB output increasing from $54.2 billion in 2016 to $81.7 billion in 2022, achieving a CAGR of 6.1% [8][15]. - The current cycle (2023 onwards) is characterized by AI server demand, with a projected 46% increase in global AI server shipments in 2024 [23][25]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Market Dynamics - The current PCB capital expenditure cycle began in Q4 2024 and is expected to last approximately two years, with potential for extension due to infrastructure demand [4][23]. - The PCB equipment market is experiencing a shift towards high-value products, with significant growth in demand for high-layer count, high-density, and high-speed PCBs [25][26]. - The global PCB equipment market is projected to reach $7.7 billion by 2025, with drilling, exposure, and plating accounting for 21%, 17%, and 7% of the market, respectively [5][44]. Group 3: Technological Innovations and Challenges - The MSAP process presents significant challenges in plating and drilling, leading to increased demand for advanced plating equipment [5][37]. - The introduction of new technologies such as CoWoP and mSAP is expected to enhance the value of PCB equipment, particularly in the drilling and plating segments [27][37]. - The PCB manufacturing process is evolving towards higher precision requirements, necessitating advancements in drilling and exposure technologies [38][39]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The PCB drilling and plating equipment market is characterized by oligopolistic competition, with domestic leaders capturing 50%-70% of the market share [4][35]. - Domestic manufacturers are increasingly able to compete with foreign counterparts, particularly in high-end PCB equipment, as foreign production capacity is limited [4][36]. - The global PCB drill bit market is projected to reach $940 million in 2024, with a CAGR of 4.4% from 2025 to 2031 [48][52].