中金：利率底部在哪 | 漫长的周期系列（二）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing interest rate reduction cycle in China, which began in 2019 and is expected to continue until 2025, drawing parallels with historical cycles and emphasizing the need to analyze the interaction between monetary policy, interest rates, asset prices, and overall demand [2][3]. Group 1: Natural Interest Rate and Monetary Policy - The natural interest rate in China has declined to near zero, indicating that there is significant room for further policy rate reductions to address low inflation [3][4]. - The article highlights two critical blind spots in the natural interest rate framework: the "effectiveness blind spot," which overlooks the impact of risk premiums on the effectiveness of rate cuts, and the "cost blind spot," which considers the financial safety and interests of savers as constraints on rate reductions [4][11]. - The analysis suggests that even with persistent low inflation, the 10-year Chinese government bond yield may not decline to the levels indicated by the natural interest rate due to these blind spots [6][10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Bond Pricing - The article argues that the low yield spread in the bond market is primarily due to reduced volatility rather than strong expectations of rate cuts, indicating a "pricing blind spot" in the natural interest rate perspective [5][41]. - The 10-year government bond yield's downward trend over the past three years may not continue, as the costs associated with rate cuts become more apparent and the lower limit of the yield spread is supported [6][70]. - The article emphasizes that the current economic environment and the potential for future rate cuts should be closely monitored, particularly in the context of market expectations and the behavior of financial institutions [61][69]. Group 3: Financial System Constraints - The Chinese banking sector's significant reliance on interest income and the high proportion of bank assets to GDP create constraints on further rate reductions, as banks prioritize maintaining net interest margins [26][29]. - The article notes that the interests of savers will also play a crucial role in determining the extent to which deposit rates can be lowered without causing public discontent [29][30]. - The ongoing global high-interest rate environment poses additional challenges for China's monetary policy, as it complicates the management of capital flows and the stability of the renminbi [32][38]. Group 4: Policy Alternatives and Economic Growth - The article suggests that there are alternative policy measures available to stimulate growth, such as fiscal expansion and structural reforms, which may be more effective than simply lowering interest rates [71][73]. - Recent changes in fiscal policy, including the use of special government bonds for consumption subsidies and an increase in the fiscal deficit ratio, indicate a shift towards more proactive fiscal measures to support economic growth [71][72]. - The potential for further structural reforms to enhance economic vitality is highlighted, with an emphasis on improving incentive mechanisms across various sectors [73].