招商银行研究·2025-08-05 09:28Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that under the pressure of medical insurance policies, going overseas has become an inevitable choice for China's innovative pharmaceutical industry due to increasing aging population and limited domestic market space for innovative drugs [3][8] - The pressure on medical insurance balance is growing, with the elderly population reaching 217 million in 2023, accounting for 15.4% of the total population, leading to increased medical demand and expenditure [9][11] - The proportion of commercial insurance in medical expenses is only 6.5%, significantly lower than in countries like the US and Japan, making it difficult to support innovative drug payments in the short term [12][15] Group 2 - Despite financing pressures in the primary and secondary markets, the enthusiasm for domestic innovative drug research and development remains high, with a 11.2% year-on-year increase in clinical approvals for innovative drugs in 2024 [31][32] - In 2024, a record 39 domestic innovative drugs were approved for market launch, indicating a significant growth in the innovative drug pipeline [33][34] - The number of clinical trials for innovative drugs in China has surpassed that of the US, ranking first globally, with 1,903 trials registered in 2024 [45][49] Group 3 - The overseas market offers higher pricing and larger market space for innovative drugs, with the price of innovative drug Zebutini in China being only about 3% of its price in the US and Europe [23][25] - Japan's experience shows that innovation and going overseas are essential paths to break domestic pressures, as seen in the historical context of Japan's pharmaceutical industry [27][28] - The case of Takeda Pharmaceutical illustrates that innovation and international expansion are crucial for growth, with its revenue from the US market reaching 51.5% by 2024 [28][29] Group 4 - License out transactions are rapidly increasing, with 2024 seeing a total transaction amount exceeding $10 billion, accounting for 31.9% of heavy transactions globally [5][77] - The types of license out transactions are becoming more diverse, with emerging technologies like ADC and dual antibodies gaining traction [81][82] - The research and development stage of license out projects is shifting earlier, with 64% of products in the preclinical stage in 2024 [83][84] Group 5 - Foreign investments are gradually expanding from purchasing innovative drug products to acquiring domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies, as seen in recent acquisitions by AstraZeneca and Genmab [89][90] - The NewCo model is emerging as a new financing method, allowing domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies to split off parts of their product pipelines to attract investment [92][93]