美股IPO·2025-08-05 09:08Core Viewpoint - UBS believes that the core issue facing current tech giants is whether they can maintain strong capital returns amid large-scale investments in AI infrastructure. The market is shifting from collective optimism towards differentiated pricing based on fundamentals. Companies that can sustain strong capital returns while having relatively conservative growth expectations may offer better risk-adjusted returns [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since 2025, the stock performance of the eight major US tech companies (NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom, Tesla) has shown significant polarization: NVIDIA, Broadcom, Microsoft, and Meta have outperformed the S&P 500, while Apple, Tesla, Google, and Amazon have lagged [2]. - The market's differentiation reflects a reassessment of AI investment return expectations for different companies. The key is to identify which companies can maintain strong capital returns while investing heavily in AI infrastructure [4][9]. Group 2: Cash Flow Return on Investment (CFROI) - UBS indicates that the market is highly sensitive to changes in the fundamentals of tech companies, which directly impacts stock performance. The 6-month CFROI revision data shows that Broadcom has received the most positive earnings expectation revisions, while Tesla and Apple face negative revisions. Google, Meta, Microsoft, and NVIDIA have relatively stable CFROI revisions, indicating stable earnings expectations, while Amazon's revision is slightly negative due to concerns over increased competition in its cloud computing business [7][9]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - Overall, the valuations of the eight major US tech companies are returning to rational levels. According to UBS's Market Implied Yield (MIY) analysis, these companies are currently at relatively cheap valuation levels compared to the past five years. The narrowing of relative valuation premiums indicates that market expectations have become more rational, moving away from simply granting "growth premiums" [10][11]. - This recalibration of valuations provides better entry points for investors, especially for companies with strong fundamentals but relatively poor stock performance [11]. Group 4: Profitability and Economic Profit - The eight major tech companies are expected to maintain impressive profitability, with CFROI projected to stay above 20% and an asset growth rate of 15%, driving continued economic profit growth [12]. - Historical trends show that these companies have successfully offset declines in asset turnover by increasing profit margins. From 2015 to 2024, the operating profit margin of this group rose from approximately 25% to over 40%, while asset turnover decreased from 0.6 to around 0.4. This change reflects a shift in business models towards higher-margin operations [14]. - The economic profit of the eight tech giants is expected to reach approximately $600 billion by 2025, with NVIDIA, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple being the main contributors [14].