美股IPO·2025-08-05 09:08Core Viewpoint - The latest employment data indicates a significant slowdown in the U.S. economy and labor market, leading Wall Street to believe that a policy shift from the Federal Reserve is imminent, with predictions of interest rate cuts starting as early as September [1][3][4]. Economic Indicators - Goldman Sachs reported that potential monthly job growth in the U.S. plummeted from 206,000 in Q1 to 28,000 in July, suggesting a severe weakening in the labor market [3][4]. - The July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, and previous months' data was revised down by 258,000, indicating a rapid deceleration rather than a moderate slowdown [4][6]. Federal Reserve's Policy Outlook - Both Goldman Sachs and Citigroup predict a high likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with the possibility of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut if economic data worsens [3][12]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December 2025, potentially lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.0-3.25% [9][12]. Political Dynamics - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler and the recent dissenting votes at the FOMC meeting suggest a strengthening of dovish forces within the Fed, paving the way for quicker easing policies [8][9]. - The potential appointment of new Fed governors by President Trump could further shift the balance of power within the FOMC towards a more accommodative stance [8]. Broader Economic Context - Goldman Sachs projects that the U.S. real GDP growth rate will only be 1.2% in the first half of 2025, indicating a significant slowdown compared to potential growth rates [6][7]. - Citigroup also notes that potential economic activity growth has fallen below potential, justifying a reduction in policy rates to neutral or lower levels [7]. Currency Implications - The anticipated shift in Fed policy contrasts sharply with other major central banks, which may lead to a weakening of the U.S. dollar due to reduced interest rate differentials [15]. - Goldman Sachs has a bearish outlook on the dollar, citing a high real trade-weighted exchange rate and a significant current account deficit as contributing factors [15][16].