瑞银点评Palantir财报：公司“叙事无瑕疵”，上调目标价至165美元

Core Viewpoint - Palantir has reported a significant revenue increase of 48% year-over-year in Q2, leading to an upward revision of its full-year guidance, indicating a strong growth trajectory, particularly in its U.S. commercial business, which is becoming the company's new core [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Palantir's Q2 revenue reached $1 billion, surpassing market expectations of $939.3 million [3]. - The adjusted operating profit was $464.4 million, a year-over-year increase of 83%, with a profit margin of 46%, exceeding market expectations by 3 percentage points [6]. - Adjusted earnings per share were $0.16, also above the consensus estimate of $0.14 [6]. Business Segments - The commercial and government segments showed strong growth, contributing 45% and 55% to total revenue, with year-over-year growth rates of 47% and 49%, respectively [8][14]. - The U.S. commercial business experienced remarkable growth, with quarterly revenue of $306 million, a 93% increase year-over-year, and an annualized revenue scale of $1.2 billion [8][15]. Guidance and Outlook - Palantir raised its full-year revenue guidance to $4.14 billion to $4.15 billion, up from the previous estimate of $3.89 billion to $3.9 billion, and above the market consensus of $3.91 billion [13]. - The company expects adjusted operating profit for the year to be between $1.91 billion and $1.92 billion, with adjusted free cash flow projected to reach $1.8 billion to $2 billion [13]. - For Q3, Palantir anticipates revenue between $1.08 billion and $1.09 billion, significantly higher than the expected $985.4 million [13]. Analyst Insights - UBS analyst Karl Keirstead noted that Palantir's growth is driven by three major trends: the surge in demand for customized AI applications, increased investment in data infrastructure, and modernization of defense technology [14]. - Keirstead raised the target price for Palantir from $110 to $165, reflecting the company's strong growth and profitability, despite its high valuation of 136 times free cash flow based on 2026 fiscal year projections [2][16]. - Jefferies analysts commented that despite strong performance and growth trends, Palantir's valuation remains disconnected from reality, even exceeding the most optimistic growth scenarios [18].