上半年财政支出的新变化（国金宏观张馨月）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal situation in China for the first half of the year, highlighting the reliance on central government financing while local government spending remains slow. It notes a significant increase in government bond financing and a shift in the use of special bonds towards debt repayment rather than project construction [2][4][6]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first half of the year, the net financing scale of government bonds reached 7.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.3 trillion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to special refinancing bonds and bonds for supplementing commercial bank capital being issued in this period [4]. - National fiscal revenue for the first half decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 8.9%, slightly below the initial budget target of 9.3% [6]. - Central government revenue and expenditure growth rates were -2.5% and 37% respectively, both exceeding initial budget expectations, while local government revenue and expenditure growth rates fell short of targets [6][7]. Infrastructure Investment - Despite a 17.6% year-on-year increase in broad fiscal expenditure in June, infrastructure investment growth was only 5.3%, indicating a disconnect between fiscal spending and infrastructure development [7][10]. - The increase in fiscal expenditure was largely driven by one-time capital injections into commercial banks, which inflated June's expenditure figures [10]. Policy Signals - The article indicates a trend towards prioritizing social welfare spending, particularly in education, social security, and healthcare, with a 6.4% year-on-year increase in these areas, outpacing overall fiscal expenditure growth [10][12]. - Recent policy measures include pension increases, subsidies for elderly care, and initiatives for free preschool education, reflecting a focus on supporting vulnerable populations [12]. Special Bonds Usage - The issuance of special bonds accelerated significantly in June and July, with 63.1% of the annual target achieved by mid-year, compared to 44.4% in the previous year [13]. - The allocation of special bonds has shifted, with a growing proportion being used for debt repayment rather than project construction, raising concerns about future infrastructure funding [14][19]. - The article notes that the use of special bonds is now subject to a "negative list" management approach, expanding the potential applications of these funds [19].