逆全球化时代，美联储货币框架如何变革｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework in response to rising inflation and the challenges posed by de-globalization, suggesting a move away from the Average Inflation Targeting (AIT) to a more explicit numerical inflation target to control inflation levels [4][7][12]. Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The post-globalization era has led to a significant increase in the inflation baseline in the U.S., with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showing an average increase of only 1.8% from 1994 to 2019, but this trend is changing [4]. - The Federal Reserve may abandon the AIT framework, which was designed to support inflation during low-inflation periods, in favor of a clear numerical inflation target to combat rising inflation levels [6][7]. - AIT has delayed the Fed's response to inflation, with the latest cycle showing a 12-month lag in response to inflation exceeding 2%, compared to an average of 5 months in previous cycles [7]. Group 2: Dollar Circulation and Fiscal Policy - The "dollar circulation" has been disrupted due to de-globalization, leading to reduced foreign investment in U.S. assets, which historically supported U.S. government debt [9][10]. - The Fed's quantitative policies need to align with the U.S. Treasury to prevent difficulties in issuing government bonds, especially as foreign demand for U.S. debt decreases [8][12]. - The potential for the Fed to restart regular bond purchases is highlighted, especially if 10-year Treasury yields approach 5%, indicating a need to stabilize the market [10][12]. Group 3: Financial Regulation and Stability - The article notes that the current financial stability concerns may lead the Fed to relax financial regulations, such as the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), to increase demand for U.S. government bonds [13][14]. - The SLR rules, which limit banks' leverage, could be adjusted to allow for greater investment in U.S. Treasuries, thereby supporting the government's financing needs [13][14]. - The potential for a significant increase in U.S. government debt, driven by fiscal policies, necessitates a coordinated approach between monetary and fiscal policies to manage the rising debt levels effectively [12].