四巨头“烧钱凶猛”，非美和二线云厂被低估，GB200良率提升！大摩对AI服务器非常乐观

Core Viewpoint - The AI-driven global cloud infrastructure competition is accelerating, with significant capital expenditure increases expected from major cloud service providers, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the AI server market, particularly from non-U.S. regions and Tier 2 cloud providers [1][3][10]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure Projections - Morgan Stanley has significantly raised its capital expenditure forecasts for the four major U.S. cloud service providers—Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft—projecting a combined capital expenditure of $359 billion in 2025, a 57% year-over-year increase, and $454 billion in 2026, a 26% increase [3][5]. - The capital expenditure for these four companies is expected to reach $100 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting a 39% year-over-year increase [5]. - Expanding the view to the top 11 global cloud service providers, total capital expenditure is projected to reach $445 billion in 2025, significantly higher than the previous estimate of $400 billion [5]. Group 2: Emerging Demand from Non-U.S. and Tier 2 Providers - The report highlights that the market may be underestimating the demand for PCIe/HGX servers from non-U.S. countries, with strong recovery in demand for B200 servers and anticipated growth for B300 servers [8]. - Tier 2 cloud service providers are catching up, with their AI server reserves potentially surpassing those of leading cloud providers, and are expected to significantly increase capital expenditure in the second half of 2026 [8]. Group 3: Supply Chain Improvements - Supply chain issues are easing, with improvements in the assembly yield of NVIDIA's next-generation GB200 chips, which is crucial for meeting the rising demand for AI servers [9]. - The GB300 sample testing is set to begin in Q3, with no significant issues reported, indicating a positive outlook for supply chain capabilities [9]. - Large-scale projects like "Stargate," involving OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle, are moving beyond planning stages and are engaging with Asian supply chains for server cabinet procurement, indicating a shift from "order-based" to "project-based" demand [9]. Group 4: Overall Industry Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on the cloud semiconductor industry, citing strong global demand, underappreciated growth areas, and improving supply chains as solid foundations for sustained industry growth in the coming years [10].