独家洞察 | 非农数据爆冷，美股美元双杀，9月降息几成定局？

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data significantly impacted financial markets, indicating a cooling labor market and raising concerns about the overall economic slowdown [3][4]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Data Impact - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July added only 73,000 jobs, far below the expected 104,000, marking a nine-month low [3]. - The previous two months' data were also revised downwards, with May's figures adjusted from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, totaling a loss of 258,000 jobs [3]. - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.6%, the Dow Jones by 1.23%, and the Nasdaq by 2.24% following the release of the non-farm data [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs projects a 1.2% annualized growth rate for U.S. GDP in the first half of 2025, which is one percentage point below its estimated potential growth rate [4]. - The forecast for consumer spending and disposable income growth remains weak due to sluggish job growth and cost pressures from tariffs [4]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have surged, with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup predicting a 25 basis point cut in September, and potential further cuts if economic conditions worsen [4][5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September jumped from 37.7% to 87.2% according to CME's FedWatch Tool, reflecting investor sentiment regarding economic pressures [5]. - While the anticipation of rate cuts may provide short-term relief, it also introduces uncertainty and potential volatility in the markets [5].