独家洞察 | Q2增速剑指9% ，标普500盈利起飞！

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index is expected to report a 4.8% growth rate in earnings for the second quarter of 2023, which is the lowest since Q4 2022, raising questions about whether this estimate will hold true [1] Group 1: Earnings Growth Expectations - Historical trends suggest that the S&P 500 may achieve over 9% year-over-year earnings growth in Q2 2023, as actual earnings often exceed expectations [3] - Over the past 10 years, actual earnings growth for S&P 500 companies has exceeded expected growth in 37 out of 40 quarters, with only three exceptions [3] - The average actual earnings growth has been 6.9% higher than expected over the past decade, with 75% of companies reporting actual earnings above expectations [4] Group 2: Recent Performance and Adjustments - In the last five years, the average actual earnings growth has been 9.1% higher than expected, with 78% of companies exceeding their earnings forecasts [4] - For the past four quarters, actual earnings growth was only 6.3% above expectations, with 77% of companies reporting higher actual earnings [5] - Applying the most conservative average growth adjustment from recent periods, the expected actual earnings growth for Q2 2023 is at least 9.5% [6] Group 3: Current Reporting Trends - As of July 11, 2023, 71% of the 21 S&P 500 companies that reported actual earnings for Q2 2023 exceeded expectations, with an overall earnings growth of 4.6% above forecasts [6] - Despite positive surprises in earnings reports, downward revisions to overall earnings expectations have led to a slight decrease in the S&P 500's growth rate from 4.9% to 4.8% since June 30 [6]