全球财政赤字挑战与应对｜封面专题

Core Viewpoint - A significant trade rebalancing is occurring globally, with domestic fiscal policy becoming a key driver of economic growth. This shift necessitates effective legal measures and a transparent debt disclosure system to prevent historical debt crises from recurring [2][3]. Group 1: Global Trade Rebalancing - The U.S. has imposed high import tariffs on other countries, marking a clear trend that began nearly a decade ago with the abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. This trend has been exacerbated by the Trump administration's tariff measures and the Biden administration's industrial subsidies aimed at promoting domestic green industries [3]. - In response to U.S. tariff policies, regions like Europe and China are implementing stronger fiscal stimulus measures to boost domestic demand and reduce reliance on U.S. consumers and financial markets [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Measures in Crisis Response - Germany has amended its constitution to relax strict fiscal rules, launching a €1 trillion investment plan to increase spending in defense, infrastructure, research, digitalization, and climate protection [5]. - China is exploring various options to stimulate long-delayed domestic consumption, requiring structural reforms in social security, financial systems, and gender balance [5]. Group 3: Debt Constraints and Risks - Many governments are facing debt constraints, lacking sufficient resources to meet basic payment obligations and return to inflation targets. Low-income and emerging market countries are particularly at risk of debt crises [7]. - The global supply of dollar-denominated assets is contingent on U.S. fiscal capacity, which is currently under pressure from the debt ceiling crisis and uncertainties surrounding proposed U.S. budget plans [7]. Group 4: Fiscal Transparency and Supervision Mechanisms - Following the last debt crisis, developed countries undertook debt clean-up, while emerging economies engaged in debt restructuring. However, the world is once again facing the risk of a global debt crisis, raising questions about the effectiveness of oversight by institutions like the IMF and World Bank [9].