光伏的好日子还得等一等

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a rally driven by the "anti-involution" policy, with a particular focus on the photovoltaic (PV) sector, which has been heavily impacted by overcapacity and price competition [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry, once a market darling, is now facing significant challenges due to severe overcapacity and price wars, making it a focal point for the "anti-involution" policy [2][3]. - Following the central government's call for "anti-involution," leading PV companies have begun to calculate their costs and collaborate to stabilize prices, leading to a recent increase in the prices of polysilicon and other PV products [3][10]. - Despite initial successes in price stabilization, the industry has struggled with self-regulation, as evidenced by the breakdown of price agreements and the resurgence of price wars [9][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Investors have shown mixed reactions, with some adopting a cautious approach while others are taking contrarian positions, betting on the recovery of leading companies in the PV sector [15][16]. - The market has seen significant fluctuations, with institutional holdings in PV stocks declining prior to the "anti-involution" policy, indicating a lack of confidence among investors [15][16]. Group 3: Policy Comparisons - The current "anti-involution" policy shares similarities with the 2015 supply-side reform, both emerging from a backdrop of economic slowdown and declining demand [20][21]. - However, the "anti-involution" policy is more complex, aiming not only to reduce overcapacity but also to address issues like low-price competition and the protection of small and medium enterprises [24][26]. Group 4: Demand Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is facing a critical demand issue, with the post-2021 period seeing a shift to stable growth, yet the aggressive expansion and financial overpricing have created significant pressure on demand [30][31]. - The recent surge in polysilicon prices poses a risk to downstream demand, complicating the recovery process for the industry [34][35].