外卖大战的“受益者”：高盛预测古茗今年多赚2亿，蜜雪多赚5000万

Core Viewpoint - The new tea beverage category has emerged as the biggest beneficiary of the current takeaway subsidy, with Goldman Sachs raising profit forecasts for Gu Ming and Mi Xue Bing Cheng by 9% and 1% respectively due to prolonged subsidies [1][2][3] Group 1: Profit Forecast Adjustments - Gu Ming's net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 9% to 2.2 billion RMB, translating to an additional profit of approximately 200 million RMB [2][15] - Mi Xue Bing Cheng's net profit forecast for 2025 has been increased by 1% to 5.4 billion RMB, resulting in an additional profit of around 50 million RMB [2][15] - The prolonged duration of takeaway subsidies has led to a significant increase in daily takeaway order volume, surpassing 100 million orders in Q2, a year-on-year growth of 27% [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The competition among takeaway platforms has intensified since JD launched a 10 billion RMB subsidy plan in April, with Meituan and Ele.me following suit, leading to a total investment of 25 billion RMB in Q2 alone [2][6] - The aggressive subsidy policies introduced in July, including free new tea beverage coupons, have temporarily boosted sales for new tea brands, but a decline in growth is expected post-subsidy [3][4] Group 3: Industry Trends and Store Expansion - The rapid expansion of new tea beverage stores has disrupted the ongoing industry consolidation trend, as subsidies have supported underperforming brands and slowed down store closures [4][5] - Gu Ming and Lucky Coffee have accelerated their store expansion in recent months, while brands like Cha Bai Dao and Nai Xue's Tea have shown improved same-store sales, potentially delaying store closure plans [5] Group 4: Long-term Outlook and Competitive Advantages - The normalization of subsidies is expected to accelerate industry consolidation, benefiting leading companies with supply chain and brand advantages [3][11] - Gu Ming's expansion into coffee and breakfast categories may mitigate some impacts from subsidy withdrawal, while Mi Xue Bing Cheng is less affected due to its lower reliance on takeaway [11][13] - Long-term, the competitive landscape may improve for core players, with Mi Xue's pricing power and supply chain capabilities supporting its growth, and Gu Ming's investment in product development and brand building aiding its market exploration [13][14]