“7月就业爆雷，9月降息50个基点”——去年夏天正在重演？

Core Viewpoint - The sudden cooling of the U.S. job market is prompting speculation about whether the Federal Reserve will repeat its previous aggressive rate cuts in response to weak employment data [2][7][10] Group 1: Employment Data - The latest non-farm payroll data for July shows a significant slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with only 73,000 new jobs added, far below market expectations [4] - The private sector added only 3,000 jobs in June and 83,000 in July, while the manufacturing sector has seen job losses for three consecutive months, averaging a reduction of 13,000 jobs per month [4][6] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.117% to 4.248%, with a decrease of 260,000 in the number of employed individuals according to household surveys [6] Group 2: Market Reactions - The unexpected weak employment report has led to increased speculation about the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September rising significantly [7][8] - The probability of a rate cut in September has surged from below 40% to nearly 90%, with a high likelihood of a 25 basis point reduction [7][8] Group 3: Economic Context - Unlike last year, the current economic challenges include inflation concerns due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [10] - Analysts believe that the risk of sustained inflation is low in the context of weak demand and a soft labor market, which may influence the Fed's future rate decisions [10]