国泰海通｜策略：关税格局逐步清晰

Group 1: Macro Strategy and Global Capital Investment - The article discusses the extension of the tariff exemption period for Sino-U.S. trade talks by 90 days, indicating a phase of stabilization in Sino-U.S. economic relations [3] - The U.S. has initiated a new differentiated tariff structure, with a unified 40% tax rate on transshipment trade, impacting countries like Vietnam, the UK, and Indonesia [3] Group 2: Domestic Economy and Industrial Policy - The Political Bureau meeting emphasized a "seeking progress while maintaining stability" approach, focusing on promoting consumption, addressing internal competition, upgrading industries, and preventing risks [4] - Key meetings held include discussions on market regulation development and industrial and information technology planning for 2025, highlighting the government's commitment to economic recovery and reform [4] Group 3: Capital Market - Positive signals from policy levels aim to consolidate the recovery of the capital market, with a focus on enhancing its attractiveness and inclusiveness [5] - The People's Bank of China is set to prevent and mitigate financial risks in key areas, establishing a macro-prudential and financial stability committee [5] Group 4: Global Geopolitical and Economic Tracking - The article notes various tariff increases announced by the U.S. on imports from India, Brazil, and copper products, reflecting ongoing trade tensions [6] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, with July non-farm payrolls showing an increase of 73,000, below market expectations [6] Group 5: Future Important Events Outlook - Upcoming events include the 2025 World Robot Expo in Beijing and the first comprehensive competition for humanoid robots, indicating a focus on technological advancements [7] - The implementation of cross-border asset management pilot business guidelines in Hainan Free Trade Port is set to take effect [7]