年内是否需要追加赤字？（国金宏观张馨月）

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue and expenditure in the second half of the year will face pressure, but the probability of additional deficits is low. It is expected that fiscal policy reserves will be utilized to cover the revenue shortfall caused by the issuance of childcare and elderly service consumption subsidies [2][6][11]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first half of the year, the deviation of fiscal revenue and expenditure from the budget was limited, with national revenue falling short of the initial budget by 463 billion and expenditure lower by 1309 billion for the general public budget [4][6]. - The revenue and expenditure growth rates for the general public budget in the first half of 2025 were -0.3% and 3.4%, respectively, while the government fund revenue and expenditure growth rates were -2.4% and 30.0% [5][7]. Group 2: Projections for the Second Half of the Year - For the second half of the year, the expected growth rates for the general public budget revenue and expenditure are -4.5% and 1.5%, respectively, with a projected revenue shortfall of 516.6 billion and an expenditure shortfall of 547.2 billion compared to the budget [6][11]. - The second half of the year is anticipated to see government fund revenue and expenditure growth rates of -2.5% and 11.4%, respectively, with a budget shortfall exceeding 500 billion [6][11]. Group 3: Budget Management Strategies - In 2024, the highest deviation of the general public budget revenue from the budget reached 915.6 billion, but no additional deficit was added. Instead, measures such as strengthening tax collection and activating existing assets were employed to catch up with the budget [9][11]. - The central budget stabilization fund had a balance of 273.9 billion at the end of 2024, with 100 billion planned to be transferred in 2025, leaving a remaining balance of 173.9 billion [12].