美国再次挥舞关税大棒：申万期货早间评论-20250807

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. imposing additional tariffs on Indian goods, which raises the total tariff rate to 50%, in response to India's continued import of Russian oil. It also highlights the positive trend in China's retail industry, with a retail prosperity index of 50.1% in August, indicating expansion [1][6]. Group 1: Key News - The U.S. President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% additional tariff on goods from India, effective in 21 days, in response to India's import of Russian oil [1]. - The retail prosperity index in China for August is reported at 50.1%, a 0.5 percentage point increase, maintaining a positive trend with seven months above the expansion threshold [6]. Group 2: Key Commodities - Glass and soda ash markets are experiencing inventory digestion due to summer maintenance, with glass production inventory decreasing by 1.56 million heavy boxes to 51.78 million [2][14]. - The soybean market shows a good growth trend, with the U.S. soybean good rate at 69%, matching market expectations, while the flowering rate is at 85% [2][24]. Group 3: Financial Market Insights - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased to 1.697%, with the central bank's reverse repo operation net draining 170.5 billion yuan [3][10]. - The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI fell to a nine-month low, increasing expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3][10]. Group 4: International and Domestic News - Federal Reserve officials indicate a need to adjust monetary policy in response to a weakening labor market and inflation risks [4]. - The People's Bank of China reported a net liquidity injection of 236.5 billion yuan in July, signaling a shift towards promoting reasonable price recovery and stable growth [5].