“散户歇了，机构满了”，美股9月风暴将至？

Core Viewpoint - The market may enter a "support vacuum period" as retail buying wanes and institutional buying exhausts, coinciding with historically poor performance in September [2][4]. Group 1: Retail Investor Dynamics - Retail investors have been a significant driving force behind the recent rebound in U.S. stocks, with net buying occurring on 27 out of the last 28 trading days [3]. - Historical data indicates that retail trading activity peaks in June and July, typically slowing down in August and reaching its lowest point in September [7][18]. Group 2: Institutional Investor Trends - Systematic funds have injected over $365 billion into global equity markets over the past 75 trading days, marking the fastest buying pace since the COVID-19 pandemic [11]. - The buying frenzy among systematic funds is nearing its end, with positions expected to be fully exposed by September, limiting their capacity for further accumulation [13]. - Strategies such as CTA, Risk Parity, and Vol-Control are showing reduced ability to increase equity exposure, which could amplify any selling pressure once these buyers withdraw from the market [13][14][15]. Group 3: Seasonal Market Risks - September is historically the worst month for the S&P 500, with increased market volatility typically observed during this period [18]. - Despite strong earnings reports, with 85% of companies exceeding expectations, these positive factors may not be sufficient to counteract the dual pressures from funding dynamics and seasonal trends [20]. Group 4: Analyst Perspective - The recent warning from Scott Rubner is a continuation of his previous analysis, which predicted a "high then low" market pattern, suggesting that the market is evolving as anticipated towards a risk window [24].