兴业证券王涵 | 特朗普的财政钢丝：短期喘息与长期隐忧

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the temporary alleviation of fiscal pressure faced by the Trump administration through various unconventional policy measures, while highlighting the potential long-term costs to U.S. soft power and global influence [1][4][24]. Group 1: Fiscal Measures and Their Impacts - The "Big and Beautiful" Act was signed into law, extending tax cuts and raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, allowing the U.S. to continue its reliance on debt issuance for short-term economic growth [7][8]. - The Act is expected to stimulate economic growth, with projections indicating a GDP increase of 0.15% and 1.2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [8]. - Tariff revenues are projected to rise significantly, with an estimated additional $2.1 trillion in tariff income over the next decade, although this may be reduced to $1.4 trillion when considering negative economic impacts [12][15]. Group 2: International Relations and Soft Power - Recent agreements with major economies like Europe, Japan, and South Korea are expected to enhance external revenue expectations, although the actual implementation remains uncertain [2][13]. - The U.S. has faced a decline in international credibility due to unilateral policies and inconsistent agreements, which may weaken its negotiating power in global affairs [4][24]. - Traditional alliances are strained, as the "America First" policy has led to skepticism among allies regarding U.S. reliability, prompting them to reconsider their defense strategies [25][24]. Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Challenges - Despite short-term relief, the U.S. faces significant long-term fiscal challenges, with federal debt exceeding $36.2 trillion, representing over 120% of GDP [23]. - The "Big and Beautiful" Act is projected to increase U.S. debt by an additional $3.4 trillion over the next decade, exacerbating the existing debt problem [23]. - Rising interest payments are becoming a substantial burden on the federal budget, with projections indicating that interest expenses will rise from 3.2% of GDP in 2025 to 4.1% by 2035 [23].